DETERMINANT S OF ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA : AN AUTOREG RESS IVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL) MODELING APPROACH

Abstract

The research also examines the relationship between t he ARDL procedure and the fully modified OLS approach of Phillips and Hansen to estim ation of cointegrating relationship between all the variables, and economic growth, these results provide strong evidence in favor of a rehabilitation of the traditional ARDL approach to time Series econometric modelling. The ARDL approach has the addition al advantage of yielding consistent estimates of the long - run co - effi cient that is asymptotically normal irrespective of whether the underlying regressors are I(1) or I(0).,This research provides an empirical analysis of the relationship between economic g rowth and its determinants factors with special focus on gross domestic product, foreign direct i nvestment and other important factors in Nigeria, using data from the period of 1976 to 2010 , we also in employed ARDL bounds testing for the long run relation ship and ECM for the short run dynamics. The findings suggest a positive relationship between efficient real GDP and foreign direct investment and economic growth both in short run and long run. Money supply and inflation have negative effects on economic growth while fiscal deficit and foreign direct investment have positive effects on growth. Foreign direct investment is found to have significant positive effect on growth. The results are consistent with the theoretical and empirical prediction.